Outcomes & Top Holders
Multi-outcome markets, side-by-side comparison, who is sitting on the other side.
A handful of prediction markets resolve to one of many possible outcomes — not a binary Yes/No. Championship winners, election outcomes, multi-team competitions all fall in this bucket. The bottom row of tabs on the market page is where you read them.
The five tabs
Outcomes — list of named outcomes with current implied probability and Up/Down (or Yes/No) buttons per row.
Compare — overlay probability lines for the outcomes you select. Useful to see how the field is moving relative to each other.
Top Holders — biggest position-holders on each side, with their total exposure.
My Trades — your trades on this market only.
All Trades — public tape of every fill on this market.
Working with the Outcomes tab
A multi-outcome market behaves like several sub-markets that share a single resolution event:
Each outcome has its own order book and its own implied probability.
Probabilities for all outcomes in a market sum to roughly 100% (minus market-maker margin).
You can hold positions on multiple outcomes simultaneously — long Spain and long France in the same World Cup market is valid.
Trading a specific outcome
In the Outcomes panel, click the outcome row you want to trade (Spain, France, etc.).
The trading widget on the right rebinds to that outcome — buttons now Up/Down on Spain specifically.
Submit at your chosen amount and speed.
The chart on the left can overlay multiple outcome lines when you tick them in the Compare tab — easier to see relative movement than checking each one alone.
Reading the Compare tab
The Compare overlay puts probability-over-time for up to several outcomes on a single chart. Patterns to look for:
Two outcomes diverging — consensus is forming around one side.
Two outcomes flat — neither is being priced; flow has gone elsewhere.
One outcome jumping — news event for that specific outcome (a team won a qualifier, a candidate dropped out).
Reading the Top Holders tab
Top Holders shows the biggest positions on each side. Useful for sizing:
Concentration check — if one wallet holds 50%+ on a side, market behaviour will be dominated by that holder's actions.
Counter-party visibility — you can tell roughly who you would be trading against.
Conviction signal — recurring large holders on a specific outcome suggest at least one party has a strong view.
Do not treat Top Holders as a recommendation — it is information, not advice.
Reading the trade tapes
My Trades — your activity. Useful for reconciling positions with what you remember submitting.
All Trades — public tape. Sudden bursts of activity show up here first; quiet markets show as a near-empty tape.
On binary Yes/No markets the Outcomes tab is collapsed to a single line (Yes vs No). Compare still works on those — you can overlay Yes-probability against your own Up/Down position chart.
FAQs
Can I be long on every outcome of a multi-outcome market?
Yes, but the sum of probabilities is roughly 100% — buying every outcome is mathematically buying the whole pot for slightly more than the pot pays. It's possible but not profitable.
What happens to my losing outcomes when the market resolves?
The winning outcome pays out at $1 per share; losing outcomes settle to $0. PnL = (shares × $1 if your outcome won) − (cost paid).
Last updated