> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://graphdex-1.gitbook.io/graphdex-docs/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://graphdex-1.gitbook.io/graphdex-docs/trading-predictions/outcomes-and-holders.md).

# Outcomes & Top Holders

**Multi-outcome markets, side-by-side comparison, who is sitting on the other side.**

A handful of prediction markets resolve to one of many possible outcomes — not a binary Yes/No. Championship winners, election outcomes, multi-team competitions all fall in this bucket. The bottom row of tabs on the market page is where you read them.

## The five tabs

* **Outcomes** — list of named outcomes with current implied probability and Up/Down (or Yes/No) buttons per row.
* **Compare** — overlay probability lines for the outcomes you select. Useful to see how the field is moving relative to each other.
* **Top Holders** — biggest position-holders on each side, with their total exposure.
* **My Trades** — your trades on this market only.
* **All Trades** — public tape of every fill on this market.

## Working with the Outcomes tab

A multi-outcome market behaves like several sub-markets that share a single resolution event:

* Each outcome has its own order book and its own implied probability.
* Probabilities for all outcomes in a market sum to roughly 100% (minus market-maker margin).
* You can hold positions on multiple outcomes simultaneously — long Spain and long France in the same World Cup market is valid.

### Trading a specific outcome

1. In the Outcomes panel, click the outcome row you want to trade (Spain, France, etc.).
2. The trading widget on the right rebinds to that outcome — buttons now Up/Down on Spain specifically.
3. Submit at your chosen amount and speed.

The chart on the left can overlay multiple outcome lines when you tick them in the Compare tab — easier to see relative movement than checking each one alone.

## Reading the Compare tab

The Compare overlay puts probability-over-time for up to several outcomes on a single chart. Patterns to look for:

* **Two outcomes diverging** — consensus is forming around one side.
* **Two outcomes flat** — neither is being priced; flow has gone elsewhere.
* **One outcome jumping** — news event for that specific outcome (a team won a qualifier, a candidate dropped out).

## Reading the Top Holders tab

Top Holders shows the biggest positions on each side. Useful for sizing:

* **Concentration check** — if one wallet holds 50%+ on a side, market behaviour will be dominated by that holder's actions.
* **Counter-party visibility** — you can tell roughly who you would be trading against.
* **Conviction signal** — recurring large holders on a specific outcome suggest at least one party has a strong view.

Do not treat Top Holders as a recommendation — it is information, not advice.

## Reading the trade tapes

* **My Trades** — your activity. Useful for reconciling positions with what you remember submitting.
* **All Trades** — public tape. Sudden bursts of activity show up here first; quiet markets show as a near-empty tape.

{% hint style="info" %}
On binary Yes/No markets the Outcomes tab is collapsed to a single line (Yes vs No). Compare still works on those — you can overlay Yes-probability against your own Up/Down position chart.
{% endhint %}

## FAQs

<details>

<summary>Can I be long on every outcome of a multi-outcome market?</summary>

Yes, but the sum of probabilities is roughly 100% — buying every outcome is mathematically buying the whole pot for slightly more than the pot pays. It's possible but not profitable.

</details>

<details>

<summary>What happens to my losing outcomes when the market resolves?</summary>

The winning outcome pays out at $1 per share; losing outcomes settle to $0. PnL = (shares × $1 if your outcome won) − (cost paid).

</details>

<details>

<summary>Does Top Holders show real identities?</summary>

No — addresses only. There is no on-platform identity mapping.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why is Top Holders sometimes empty?</summary>

New markets with few participants don't yet have enough positions to populate a leaderboard.

</details>


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