Execution Risks

Six failure modes that show up specifically on prediction markets. Each one has a way to avoid it.

Predictions trading shares a lot of plumbing with spot trading on Solana, but it has its own characteristic ways of going wrong. None of these are exotic — they happen often enough that knowing them in advance saves real money.

GraphDex does not guarantee fill price, resolution timing, or oracle outcomes. Every safeguard below is on you to apply.

1. Liquidity gaps

Small or new markets have thin order books. A Market order walks through the few available levels and the average fill price is much worse than the top-of-book number you saw.

Mitigation: check the order book before Market-buying anything that didn't show deep displayed size. Use Limit Orders when in doubt.

2. Resolution delays

Real-world events take real-world time to resolve. A market that says "resolution: 5 minutes after close" can take longer if data is contested or the source is slow.

Mitigation: don't size as if the market will resolve instantly. Account for the possibility your capital is locked for hours longer than the schedule suggests.

3. Oracle disputes

The data source a market resolves against can be contested — wrong source, source down, source ambiguous. Markets in dispute may take longer to settle or settle differently than expected.

Mitigation: read the resolution methodology on the market page before sizing. Markets with clear, named, authoritative sources are less risky than those with vague rules.

4. Late-entry on closing-soon markets

A market in its last few minutes can have wide spreads, last-minute pulled liquidity, or unfilled Market orders that walk badly. Closing-soon is where late-entry risk is highest.

Mitigation: use Turbo speed deliberately for late entries; check book depth right before clicking; consider not entering at all if depth is thin.

5. Multi-outcome mis-click

Multi-outcome markets have many sub-rows. Clicking Up on the wrong outcome is easy and submits a real trade.

Mitigation: turn confirmation on in Trading Settings until you trust your clicks. Verify the highlighted outcome row before submit.

6. Slippage on Turbo

Turbo accepts worse fills to land your order. On a thin or fast-moving market, this can mean a noticeably worse price than the row showed.

Mitigation: use Turbo only when speed genuinely matters. Tighten slippage in Trading Settings if you want to cap how much worse the fill can be.

Pre-trade checklist

• Order book is deep enough for my size at the displayed price.

• Resolution methodology is clear and the source is authoritative.

• My speed preset matches the market's urgency (not just my mood).

• On multi-outcome markets, the highlighted outcome row is the one I actually want.

• My amount is what I intend, not the last preset I tapped.

After-trade reality

• Predictions trading is non-recourse. There is no refund button.

• GraphDex support can answer "what happened" but cannot undo a submitted trade.

• If a market resolves against you in a way that surprises you, the place to read about it is the market page itself — resolution rules and the resolving data are usually published there.

Treat every prediction trade as a small, deliberate bet. The fastest way to learn the risks is on small sizes.