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Reading Three Lanes

Field guide to each lane on Pulse — what the rows mean, what to look for, what to skip.

Pulse has three lanes. Each one is the same widget shape — filter pill on top, scrolling rows below — but the rows tell you different things at each life-cycle stage.

Lane 1 — New Prediction

The leftmost lane shows markets that just opened. Rows here have:

  • Age measured in seconds — just now, 5s, 30s.

  • Volume usually $0 or a few cents from the first orders.

  • Implied probability often defaulted to 50% / 50% until orders arrive.

  • Wide spreads, especially on long-window markets where there is no time pressure.

What to look for

  • A recurring market (e.g. "Bitcoin Up or Down — 5 minute window") spawning a fresh instance you want to be early in.

  • New markets in a category where you have a view but no existing market existed yet.

What to skip

  • New markets in unfamiliar categories with $0 volume — you have no price discovery to lean on.

Lane 2 — Active Prediction

The middle lane is where most volume actually trades. Rows here have:

  • Age anywhere from a few minutes to days.

  • Volume rising — the column that matters most here.

  • Implied probability moving as flow comes in.

  • Tighter spreads — competitive market-makers and real demand.

What to look for

  • Sudden volume surges on a single market — a news event is being priced.

  • Big skews in participant split (e.g. 80% / 20%) on markets where you disagree with consensus.

  • Markets you are already watching from Research — Pulse Active confirms that flow is real.

What to skip

  • Long-window markets that have been Active for days with no fresh volume — they are inert background noise on a lane that should be moving.

Lane 3 — Closing Soon

The rightmost lane shows markets approaching settlement. Rows here have:

  • Time-to-close measured in minutes5M, 2M, 1M.

  • Implied probability either converging fast (sharp consensus emerging) or stuck (uncertain to the end).

  • Spreads behaving in either direction — tightening as the trade becomes obvious, or widening as makers pull liquidity.

What to look for

  • A late edge — your view differs from a market where probability hasn't fully converged.

  • A hedge on an existing position closing in the same window.

What to skip

  • Markets in their last seconds with $0 of recent volume — you'll likely be the only counterparty and the fill quality will be poor. See Execution Risks.

Cross-lane patterns

  • A market that moves from New to Active fast is being recognised by the market-makers. Likely worth following.

  • A market that sits in New with $0 volume for hours is uninteresting and will be ignored on resolution.

  • A market that reaches Closing Soon with a wide split is either genuinely uncertain or under-traded — check the order book first.

FAQs

How long does a row stay in each lane?

New holds markets for roughly their first few minutes. Active is the long middle. Closing Soon picks up markets a few minutes before settlement.

Can I filter all three lanes at once?

Category pills filter all three lanes together. Per-lane filters are independent — useful when you want to watch one category in New and another in Closing Soon.

Why is "Closing Soon" sometimes empty?

Long-window markets dominate at certain times and there may simply be no markets within the closing-soon threshold. Switch focus to Active until short-window cycles spawn again.

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